Friday, 19 July 2013

Major Gold Producers and Developers - Roger Bade at Whitman Howard

These Reports are somewhat dated, from November 2012 and February 2013 but now seem rather prescient in their focus on economics at lower gold prices.
Indeed Bade seems fairly bearish on gold and the miners
We are on record as arguing that this is a sector steeped in mediocrity. The sector has focussed on production and per ounce valuations for too long and will be forced to focus on shareholders’ returns as competition increases for the investor dollar.
The Major Gold Producers - HERE  - and a review of the article HERE 
A good appendix at the end trending return on shareholders' funds.

The Major Gold Developers - HERE

Of course a turn and upward trend in gold prices may see leverage come back to marginal stocks

MORE DETAIL.....

Saturday, 13 July 2013

Outlook for Exploration - Minex Consulting

HT to IKN 

A very comprehensive survey of trends in mineral exploration and discovery from Minex Consulting who also make available a large number of additional reports and some interesting sources / links

Emphasises the enormous increases in expenditures but limited paybacks in discovery and, again in the mining industry, cost increases at the exploration stage.......MORE

Junior Gold Mining M&A - Alamos Gold to Buy Esparanza Resources

Alamos Gold announced a friendly takeover of Esparanza Resources for approx C$69m having been recently beaten to the much larger Aurizon by Hecla.
Run by the ex Minefinders team (acquired by Pan American Silver) they could have sat on cash ($36m at end 2012) so what has prompted an immediate sale?
Again only a few very recent buyers will be making a profit on Esparanza even though the stock was up over 30%......MORE

Thursday, 11 July 2013

Bernanke - Highly Accomodative Policy Needed for the Foreseeable Future

After all the happy talk

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100877586
Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday that the U.S. economy continues to need highly accommodative monetary policy. Answering questions at a conference sponsored by the National Bureau of Economic Research Bernanke said that when looking at the Fed's dual mandate on employment and inflation more work needed to be done. He said the 7.6 percent unemployment rate probably "overstates the health of the labor market" and that inflation remains below the Fed's 2 percent target. Moreover, fiscal policy remains "quite restrictive," Bernanke said.
And just after Goldman and JP Morgan had called a bottom in commodities
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtreadgold/2013/07/02/jp-morgan-mimics-the-goldman-sachs-view-of-an-improving-commodity-outlook/

Gold Did This













Dollar Did This


Wednesday, 3 July 2013

Tocqueville Q2-13 Letter - John Hathaway

Linked HERE

We observe profound internal change within the industry which suggests to us that the strongest companies will deliver compelling upside performance when the metals markets turn. These changes include substantial scale backs of capital spending and other measures to preserve cash and reduce expenses. As managers, we are focusing on companies with the strongest financials and best assets. 
short positions of these traders are higher than at the bottom in 2008 (chart below), after which gold rallied 167% and mining shares 256% (basis XAU)