Wednesday, 21 February 2018

Peter Brandt on Gold

Article
"My bias is that Gold will rip through resistance to commence a new bull trend"

Fred Hickey on the Opportunity in Gold Miners

"So, we have this huge disconnect between the price of gold and the margins of the miners -- which are doing very well because they had to keep their costs low -- and the price of the stocks. Now, ultimately, that will get corrected. We saw the huge run in 2015, where gold went up 30% in the beginning of 2016 and the miners went up 180%. And we saw that in 2000, when gold went up quite a bit, and the miners went up 1600%. That’s 17 times the average. We saw that in the 1970s coming out of the bear market there. We saw that on the big net buyers went up at least 10 times, and some of them went up as much as 30 times. So, this happens regularly when the miners get depressed. They get out of whack with the price of gold and margins, and then they slingshot higher. And that’s what I think we’re about to see.
We’re right there. I think there’s going to be enormous amounts of money entering this sector once again, just as we saw in early 2000s, just like we did coming out of 2015, the bottom, just as we did coming out of the 1970s mid-cycle correction. So, I’m pretty excited about it."


Article / Podcast

Tuesday, 2 January 2018

Peter Brandt on Gold 2018

"I believe there is a good chance that the precious metals will be an outstanding asset class in 2018 – Gold could outperform Bitcoin in the year ahead."

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/2018-gold-outlook/

Saturday, 22 April 2017

Jordan Roy-Byrne on Favouring the Junior Miners

Jordan reviews his focus on the juniors during the progression of a precious metals bull market, (for those convinced the turn in 2016 was the final transition to a bull market).

From the fundamentals, so often repeated by Brent Cook, of falling discovery rates and majors looking to replace depleted high grade reserves, to the investment cycles, leverage and added value of discovery and development.

I would add to this the interesting developments in the GDXJ Gold juniors ETF.
Investors are keen to get exposure to the juniors but the ETF is unable to deploy all the funds without reorganisation and is looking to move more investment in larger companies.
Will some of those investors wanting exposure to the juniors invest more directly into key junior companies? In a bull market as valuations and liquidity increase this should become more feasible.

Thursday, 20 April 2017

Cryptocurrencies

I hadn't realised there are now 800-900 Cryptocurrencies.

The entire marketcap for the sector has more than tripled in a year, standing at a total $30bn, adding $10bn in just the last couple of months. 
$20bn of the total market cap is Bitcoin, with only 4 others over $500m.
"Altcoins", I presume non Bitcoin, have quadrupled to $10bn in just the last 2 months.

CoinMarket appears to list and track 800
Cryptocompare lists almost 900

Current promotions by the usual letters.


A number of doubles, triples and 10 baggers in the last 7 days trading!

Fortunes made and lost in the speculative tides.
Caveat Emptor
Hotel California

Sunday, 26 March 2017

Sharpest Plunge in Credit since the Financial Crisis (while Stocks Soar)

Ambrose Evans Pritchard at the Telegraph

While stock markets soar there are conflicting signals from credit markets.
Either the stock market is seeing the other side of this, and a huge pent up lending boom for the banks after Trump cuts taxes, or the credit markets are flashing the real signals.




Sunday, 25 September 2016

More State and Fiscal Policy action using free money - Turning points for Bonds?

Ambrose Evans Pritchard highlighting enormous global debt levels, issues with free market capitalism and encouragement by global institutions to government spending and investment, fiscal policy to take the baton from monetary policy, or be supported by monetary policy.

Acting Man reviews moves by the Japanese Central Bank targeting 10 year bonds to 0% giving governments free long term money to enact plans. Do the Central Banks have such control or can the bond vigilantes influence?

Sunday, 11 September 2016

Steve Saville - Explaining Moves in the Gold Price

Gold price drivers / correlations  

These are traditional flight to safety associations. 
The question will be if bonds turn as interest rates rise, if the Yen weakens due to central bank actions will gold automatically fall?

Jeff Gundlach at DoubleLine
“This idea that fiscal stimulus may be coming seems to be getting sniffed out by the bond market,” Gundlach said. More debt spending may increase the cost of government borrowing by adding supply and making investors demand higher yields...........Gundlach told Reuters this summer that his firm went “maximum negative” on Treasuries on July 6 when the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note hit 1.32 percent. The 10-year now yields around 1.60 percent. All told, Gundlach said he turned short-term negative on gold and gold miners but has not sold any of his firm’s positions.


















Sunday, 4 September 2016

Gold and Silver Miner Fundamentals - 2016-Q2

Reviews from Adam Hamilton at Zeal
GDX     GDXJ     SIL

A point of particualar note; acquisition activities over the past few years have seen the "Silver Miners" become increasingly gold weighted.
A company like Silver Standard which was an ounces in the ground silver play has acquired gold mines.
Plenty more to the analysis of these companies in particular reserves and resources.
An ETF 'fundamentally' weighted by sales or production would be an interesting comparison in a bull market.






































































Canadian Venture Holds the 50 Day?

Worth keeping a close eye on this as we move into what are usually the best seasonals for gold and miners, but following an extremely big run this year.
A lot of the bigger indices and ETFs haven't done this.
Will the Venture lead or fold?


Saturday, 20 August 2016

Exploration Leaders - Quality is Important

Discussion with Brent Cook, Joe Mazumber, John-Mark Staude and Morgan Poliquin from Sprott's Natural Resources Conference

Linked HERE

  • Finance flooding into the sector
  • Questions of how long will your treasury last has become can you get more drills? How much money do you need, how quickly can you do something.
  • Many stocks have moved only justified at $1500+ gold
  • Majors have taken big write downs, slower to move aggressively, many established deposits are low quality and much higher prices, majors may move down the food chain for higher quality at lower price. Majors have a lot of marginal ounces they have written down, acquisition only makes sense for higher quality.
  • Up cycle people want to drill. Many companies just marketing, don't want to drill just finance. Better companies want to drill and find the fatal flaw quickly, not romance the project, move on.
  • Further along in the cycle, there will always be new projects and discoveries as more exploration underway.
  • investors making money in the big stocks only just beginning to trickle down, the general public isn't in yet despite big moves up from extreme bear bottom.









Saturday, 28 May 2016

Brent Cook & Joe Mazumder - Quality vs Leverage / Evaluating Stocks - at MI.Forum

Linked at IKN







Brent discusses failures at Allied Nevada, Rubicon, Midway. Lack of quality, poor supply of good projects against investment demand. Complex Industry. On drill plans, continuity, dilution, strip ratios, impacts for Dalradian, Moneta. Grade smearing - drill interval calculator.
Presentation of all data, e.g. Mirasol & Alamaden vs Otis.

Joe discusses quality vs leverage. Lower quartile long lived assets, return vs scale. Heap leach study and Kaminak gold, recoverable gold. Reservoir minerals.District scale exploration upside. Bought quality in poor market. Opposite strategy buy optionality, leverage to price, duration to cash, jurisdiction key to liquidity. Need to understand the majors gain ozs in their current portfolios as prices rise, impairments due to write downs of current assets. Low liquidity can't exit positions. Optionality has worked but needs trading focus - in a bear quality goes down too though.